Robert's Blog

I just loved the idea of this... A theme for the new year.... It could be a business theme, personal theme, or a combination of the two. Either way, "tiz the season" and if it is not a resoulution of sorts, you should at least have a few bullet points of a business plan ready to dust off and hit the ground running with for 2009.  One year gone and a new one is just begining!

I have always loved Jennifer's blogs, THANK YOU JENNIFER!

Have a Happy, safe, healthy and prosperous new year!

Rob

Robert Rauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Real Estate Mortgage Network

 NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ

This is a follow up my blog last week: "How cold is too cold for camping"

Weather.com was pretty accurate, we had clear skies, but it was actually colder than than the forecast. I think the forecast said 24 or 25 as an overnight low on Friday night, and 25 or 26 for Sunday night.

I don't think it ever got above freezing all day Saturday.

We got up Saturday morning and our Senior boys made us breakfast, the actually were up before we were and had coffee going for us. (it was not a good pot of coffee, but it was warm!) We had Breakfast Burritos, fresh pepper and Sausage and eggs in a wrap... MMM!

We had 2 other patrols that made pankes, as many times as they screw that up, they still continue to try. It makes a big mess, never turns out well and seems to take twice the time it should.

The boys spent the morning making shelters

The one on the left is the winning shelter, The second one got off to a great start, using lashings, but was never finished.

• For lunch we had Meatball subs. Hot meal when it is below freezing all day was great! In the afternoon the patrols had competitions with knots and compass work, I have photos of that too, but the next photos are the ones that you will probably enjoy the most
• Dinner: Feasted again! We made Pizza starting with home made (camp made) dough. We had to put it by the fire to rise (and so it wouldnt freeze). For desert: Apple & Cherry Cobbler made in a dutch oven in the fire.

I could tell it was cold when I went to put the fire out and our bucket of water that had been sitting next to the fire was frozen on top. Frozen enough that it made it difficult to pour! Off to bed, hoping to stay warm!

How do you stay warm in a tent when it is below freezing? First thing: you need insulation underneath you. Big rookie mistake is to sleep on an air mattress... That is DEATH in the cold! Your best bet is a folded blanket underneath you, along with a pad,  on the ground and a sleeping bag on top of that. Next, and this is hard to do, Strip out of all of the clothing from the day and put on a fresh layer and socks prior to jumping into your bag. I also throw a hand warmer at the foot of my bag to keep my feet from freezing. The bag it self is important, a rectangular bag just doesn't cut it, you need a mummy bag.

I awoke Sunday morning with a text from home: 18.7 degrees at home just 30 miles away... and My tent was all frosty inside

I took a few photos inside of the tent, but it was hard to do while all bundled up in my bag, and some did not come out well, There was ice on my sleeping bag, and in the photo below I tried to capture that, but unfortunately I must have fogged up the camera

Here I am in my Bag, about to get out... Which is a chore, there are 4 separate drawstrings on the bag, in addition to the zipper and 2 Velcro closures to ensure you keep the heat in and the cold out. While sleeping I look like Kenny from South Park.

We had to break down fairly quickly Sunday morning. The firehouse where we have our meetings was having a pancake breakfast and we always go to serve at it and support them (Pleasant Plains Volunteer Fire House). as I broke down my tent there was more ice...

It wasn't exactly frost, it was ice crystals that came off of the fly when I took it off, in this next photo, you can see the frost that fell down in a pile by one of the stakes. one was actually frozen in..

The ice in my tent was NOTHING compared to the tents the boys were in, 2 bodies produce more moisture I guess!  By time we got everything packed up and were ready to drive away... (trying to get teens out of their warm sleeping bags is NOT an easy thing, so this took longer than I wanted!) the temperature had climbed up a bit, here is a picture of the thermometer in the car

 I dropped my son off at the Firehouse to serve, ran home for a quick shower to get rid of my 36 hour "Hat Head" hair style, and back for some pancakes... The Breakfast was great!

So that was my scouting saga, adventure for this trip, complete with photographic evidence of my chilly experience! Remember to support your local Scout Troop!

Have a great week

Rob

Robert Rauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Real Estate Mortgage Network

 Question: How cold is too cold to go camping?

Answer: It is NEVER too cold!... (at least for the Boy Scouts). My sons troop is camping this weekend, and since I am one of the Scout Masters. I will be as well.  (BSA Troop 30 in Toms River NJ)

It has been warm most of this month so far, but I woke up this morning to snow, no accumulations but white stuff was coming down... Skies are bright and blue right now.... The problem with a clear sky this time of year?  It means COLD!  So I checked with the weather man. The good news is they say 0% chance of precipitation, The bad news: The next two nights have over night lows in the low 20s. 

Did I mention we will be in tents? Not cozy wimpy cabins... But tents..

So when you are snuggled up in your bed this weekend, you can laugh at the thought of me zipped up on a mummy bag trying to stay warm. 

It actually is not as bad as it may sound, if you have the right gear for the weather. The big probem is keeping the coffee pot from freezing.  One year we had to defrost the solid block of ice in the coffee pot to make coffee, That's the first thing on the agenda in the morning! Oh, the things we do for our kids!

Have a great weekend, and when you get the opportunity, Please Support your local Scout troop!

UPDATE: here is a link to the blog with photos of the actual trip http://activerain.com/blogsview/806048/Back-from-Camping-18-Degrees-with-a-lot-of-Photos-of-the-fun

Rob

Robert Rauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Real Estate Mortgage Network

Real Estate Market Trends in Toms River

According to the latest Zillow Real Estate Market Reports, home values in Toms River decreased -8.02% in the third quarter of 2008, compared to the third quarter of 2007. Nationally, home values decreased -9.7% during this same period. (from www.Zillow.com)

At first glance that looks like bad news, but considering that many areas have dropped 1%/month for the past 12+ months, that is great news. if you grab a calculator and do the math, That 1.68% difference is almost 21%. So Toms River, NJ is doing 21% better than the average of the country.

A big piece of this is that the foreclosure stats are much lower in Ocean County than they are in the rest of the country as well, While there are more foreclosures than any of us are accustomed to, there are far fewer here than other parts of the country

Have a great week!

Rob

Robert Rauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Real Estate Mortgage Network

Even if it is, here are a few of my favorites to share.

The first one I title: TOE ATTACK

not the best photo, but it made me laugh!

the next few are sunsets over the Metedeconk river

The next few are from 2 back packing trips I did to SunFish Pond... Yes there are water falls and wilderness in NJ!!!

The shaggy one below is my son... He swears the girls like his long hair

And this final one is of my son (just a few weeks ago) on the northern shore of Sunfish pond. There are sculptures left by people visiting the pond, he is sitting in one that was a stone easy chair. every time there is something new.

Well, thats enough for now!

Have a great week!

Rob

Robert Rauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Real Estate Mortgage Network

It is another busy week of economic data, all of which is anticipated to support the possibility of lower mortgage rates. Here is what is in store for this week:

• Monday Nov 17: October Industrial production and Capacity Utilization; expected -0.5% and 76.1. Past reports have shown slowing factory orders and low retail sales. It is pretty much a given that these will be weak numbers. Doubtful that we will see movement off of these numbers (the market is flat but slightly positive on this news as I post)
• Tuesday Nov 17: October PPI; expected -1.7% with a core of +0.1%. Falling energy prices (as we have been happy with at the pump the past few weeks) has cut the headline number way down, but the core rate is still expected to post one of the smallest increases for the entire year. The expected numbers are already priced into the market.
• Wednesday Nov 19: Building permits and Housing starts; expected -3.1% and -4.5%. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that new construction has been slow and builders are not adding inventory to an already swamped market.... bottom line, no surprises here and thus, doubtful that the market will move on the data
• Wed 11/19: October CPI; expected -0.7% with a core of +0.1%. Based on the estimate, our cost of living has fallen the most in 60 years. This is mostly due to the drop in energy prices. The lack of inflation pressure in CPI and PPI has left the door open for Fed Funds to be cut in December. Many investors have priced in a 0.5% cut in fed funds, so it is not likely we will see any movement in rates today w/o a surprise in the figures.
• Wednesday(AGAIN!): Fed minutes from the 10/28 meeting released. The minutes from the FED meeting will include a forecast for inflation and unemployment. It is anticipated that there will be downward revisions in growth and inflation into next year. There are already gloomy forecasts out there, but if the FED's numbers are gloomier there is the potential for a late day rally in the credit markets, which will support lower rates.
• Thursday 11/20: Initial Jobless Claims; expected Down 9,000. A modest number that is not likely to draw any attention.
• Thursday 11/20: October's leading indicators; expected -0.6%. Investors will be looking at this number. They will be watching to see if there is 2 consecutive months of improved readings. If there is, it is a sign of a potential rebound, if not it will support steady to fractionally lower rates.
• Friday: No News day!

It is another busy week that will be over shadowed by the potential of excess supply in the market. The concerns are still that the Treasury will be flooding the markets with bonds as the US Government looks to borrow to support its bailout plans over the next few months. There is the basic rule of supply and demand here: too much supply and the price has to come down so that there is an appetite for the bonds. Unfortunately in the credit markets, price down = yield up. and if there is not demand for treasuries there will be limited demand for mortgages as well. Still a lot of unknowns out there, Everything points to lower rates and from an economic stand point, we should see lower mortgage rates than we have now, but there is enough volatility to cause concern, leaving the safest option being to lock in an interest rate when you can.   Keep in mind that the average rate on a 30 yr loan for the past 20 years is  7.68%, considering that we are in the low 6's now, we are in Great shape and have nothing to worry about!

Have a great week!

Rob

Robert Rauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Real Estate Mortgage Network

I am going to put a date on this: it is November 13, 2008. We are solidly below $2 in Ocean County

Can you believe the swing we have seen in Gas prices? I was going to write something about Gas dropping below $2 when I saw the first $1.999 pop up. Then I started counting stations on my drive to the office that were below $2.  But today I saw Below $1.90 at more than one station!

From my quick, unscientific, survey I have to conclude that Ocean County is Far cheaper than Monmouth county. As soon as you cross the Manasquan River it hops back up above $2/gallon. But today I was on Route 37 west in Toms River. I think EVERY station on 37 west was below $1.90. But 37 East still has a lot of $1.90's

Now if we could just get the price of diesel down. I am sick of paying $1 more a gallon for Diesel than Gas!

This is some great news as the Holidays approach, More money in our pockets!  From an economic stand point it is a great thing. It should help increase consumer confidence which has been at all time lows, and it should help the economy over all.

I just wanted to share some good news!

Rob

Robert Rauf

Real Estate Mortgage Network

If you have read my profile you know that I have been in the business for over 20 years, I have seen a lot of ups and downs since the late 1980s both in business and in interest rates.  My first house I paid over 11% on my loan, and I am in the business!!! When you look at the chart below, you will see that RATES ARE GREAT!

I know that I look at rates today and think they should be lower based on economic conditions.  But historically speaking we are still quite low. The average rate over the past 20 years is 7.68% and for most of this year we have  been solidly in the 6's and keep flirting with the high 5's.  We are in great shape and today's rates make financing your next home Very affordable!

And keep in mind that this chart cuts off the REALLY high years in the early 1980's when the rates were well into the teens, So a 30 yr average is even higher. So to sum up: We are in wonderful shape right now. Mortgages are near historical low levels (2003 was called a 40 year low).. and Homes are affordable. What more could we ask for?

Have a great day!

Rob

Robert Rauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Real Estate Mortgage Network

If you have read my profile you know that I have been in the business for over 20 years, I have seen a lot of ups and downs since the late 1980s both in business and in interest rates. One thing that has always caused me to bite my tongue is a conversation on rates. How often have you heard a client say : "Rates are high"? I just bite my lip and laugh to myself.  My first house I paid over 11% on my loan, and I am in the business!!!

I know that I look at rates today and think they should be lower based on economic conditions.  But historically speaking we are still quite low. The average rate over the past 20 years is 7.68% and for most of this year we have  been solidly in the 6's and keep flirting with the high 5's.  So: DARN IT... Rates are GREAT!!!

And keep in mind that this chart cuts off the REALLY high years in the early 1980's when the rates were well into the teens, So a 30 yr average is even higher.

Things are GREAT! we just need to be focused on the positive aspects we have to deal with and pass that information along to our clients as well.

Have a great day!

Rob

Robert Rauf

Real Estate Mortgage Network