Robert's Blog

There is a lot going on in Seaside this weekend. first off Wednesday's fireworks were re-scheduled for tonight, 8/15/2008, due to wind conditions on Wednesday.  This should take place approximately 9:30pm depending on Weather conditions.

Also tonight, Seaside Heights will be holding its "Fun for the Young Fridays" with Brenn Swanson's Variety Show at 7pm at Freemont Ave and the Boardwalk. For more info visit seasideheightstourism.com or call (800)SEASHORE.

Saturday in Seaside is "Madona Night" as part of "Free Movies on the beach" to Honor Madona's 50th birthday.  The film festival will take place at 6:30pm Saturday August 16th at Hiering Ave and the Beach.  The Borough will feature Madonna Music and a Madonna Wannabe Contest, Followed by a triple feature of Select Madonna Films beginning at dark.  For more info please visit: Seasideheightspublicrelations.com

Sounds like another great weekend for everyone. This weekend I will be White Water rafting in the Lehigh Valley with Troop 30...

Have a great weekend!

Rob

Robert Rauf

On August 23, 2008 Jekinson's Breakwater Beach  Water Park will be holding the second annual Crab Race for a Cure fundraiser.  The Race starts at 6pm and will benefit  the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation (Central Jersey Chapter)

If you wish to participate you can purchase a plastic crab at Breakwater beach or JDRF's Shrewsbury office for $10. Anyone buying a crab will receive $5 off a twilight admission to the water park on the day of the event.

for more information you can visit casinopiernj.com or call breakwater beach at (732) 793-6488

This sounds like a lot of fun, and all for a good cause as well

Rob

Robert Rauf

www.RobertRaufHomeloans.com

This Weeks Economic Data August 11, 2008

I am aways asked "where will rates be next week?" Honestly the only answer is "I don't Know"  I can take an educated guess about what is happening in the market and do a quick analysis of the calendar for you to help you make an educated decision when applying for a mortgage:

Here is this weeks forecast and Economic Calendar:

• Monday and Tuesday... nothing really going on here as far as market reports go.
• Wednesday: July Retail Sales Expected to be -0.1% , without Autos the expectations are +0.5%. this number will pretty much be a non event unless there is a gain of +0.1% or more. With all of the economic stimulus checks being issued, the market expects retail sales to taper off as the higher cost of living and weaker employment takes a toll on consumers. If the estimate is accurate it may be supportive of steady to fractionally lower rates.
• Wednesday: June Business inventories estimate+0.5%. This report is nothing more than a blip on the radar. It is relatively old news and just a foot note on the days calendar.
• Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims; anticipated down 25,000. A bigger drop than the anticipated number will tend to be a bit scary for mortgage investors.. This number in itself is not enough to have big moves in the market, but combined with a strong CPI could hurt by the end of the day
• Thursday: Consumer Price Index; anticipated up +0.4% with a Core Rate +0.2%. This is The BIG number of the week. If the core rate does not go above .2% we will see a flat market. If the core jumps to +.3%, inflation fears will likely cause rates to move higher.
• Friday: July Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization; Production number 0% Capacity 79.8% are the market consensus. These two numbers show a modest decline in the manufacturing sector last month. Previous reports have already shown the decline so it is not likely the market will do much more than a shoulder shrug with this report

Mortgage rates this week will likely be focused on the dollar and on exchange rates. The past few weeks the dollar has gotten stronger. The stronger dollar increases the appeal of foreign investment and at the same time helps to bring the costs of imports down, (As you have seen at the pump... Gas is cheaper mostly because of the value of the dollar)

If the dollar continues to be strong this week we will probably see the price of oil drop.  You may not think that this will have an effect on mortgage rates, but a rising dollar and falling oil may soon increase investment in the stock market which is likely to pull cash out of the credit markets causing the price of Treasuries and mortgages to drop, causing the yields to climb.

This week is yet another one that would have me advising on the side of caution as the chance of an upward tick in rates is probably slightly higher than the reverse.

I hope this helps!

Have a great week

Rob

Robert Rauf

www.RobertRaufHomeloans.com

This is yet another week where it will most likely be the World Economy that drives the credit markets. There is a hand full of economic data being released on the calendar this week as well, with the most important information coming towards the end of the week

• Monday and Tuesday... nothing really going on here as far as market reports go.
• Wednesday: July Retail Sales Expected to be -0.1% , without Autos the expectations are +0.5%. this number will pretty much be a non event unless there is a gain of +0.1% or more. With all of the economic stimulus checks being issued, the market expects retail sales to taper off as the higher cost of living and weaker employment takes a toll on consumers. If the estimate is accurate it may be supportive of steady to fractionally lower rates.
• Wednesday: June Business inventories estimate+0.5%. This report is nothing more than a blip on the radar. It is relatively old news and just a foot note on the days calendar.
• Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims; anticipated down 25,000. A bigger drop than the anticipated number will tend to be a bit scary for mortgage investors.. This number in itself is not enough to have big moves in the market, but combined with a strong CPI could hurt by the end of the day
• Thursday: Consumer Price Index; anticipated up +0.4% with a Core Rate +0.2%. This is The BIG number of the week. If the core rate does not go above .2% we will see a flat market. If the core jumps to +.3%, inflation fears will likely cause rates to move higher.
• Friday: July Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization; Production number 0% Capacity 79.8% are the market consensus. These two numbers show a modest decline in the manufacturing sector last month. Previous reports have already shown the decline so it is not likely the market will do much more than a shoulder shrug with this report

Mortgage rates this week will likely be focused on the dollar and on exchange rates. The past few weeks the dollar has gotten stronger. The stronger dollar increases the appeal of foreign investment and at the same time helps to bring the costs of imports down, (As you have seen at the pump... Gas is cheaper mostly because of the value of the dollar)

If the dollar continues to be strong this week we will probably see the price of oil drop.  You may not think that this will have an effect on mortgage rates, but a rising dollar and falling oil may soon increase investment in the stock market which is likely to pull cash out of the credit markets causing the price of Treasuries and Mortgages to drop, causing the yields to climb.

This week is yet another one that would have me advising on the side of caution as the chance of an upward tick in rates is probalby slightly higher than the reverse.

I hope this helps!

Have a great week

Rob

Robert Rauf

www.RobertRaufHomeloans.com

 Monofilament fishing line is estimated to take 500 years to decompose... It is a hazard to marine animals, and people alike.  Boat propellers HATE it!  And it is dangerous to people diving and getting tangled in it. (exactly why I dive with Multiple Knives!)

There are now 11 locations in New Jersey to recycle fishing line:

• Leonardo State Marina, Middletown, NJ
• Bahrs Landing Marina, Highlands, NJ
• Barnegat Lighthouse State Park, Barnegat Light
• Island Beach State Park
• Forked River State Marina
• South Harbor Marine, Waretown
• Wharton State Forest
• Utches Marina, Cape May
• Miss Chris Marina, Cape May
• D&R Canal
• Kittatinny Valley State Park, Andover
• UPDATE: I was at West Marine in Bricktownship on Friday... They also have a collection bin in their fishing section... So make that at least 12 locations !

The bins are made of PVC and should be similar to the one on the right, the DEP requests that only line be put in the bins, No hooks bobbers or other garbage.

Berkley (one of the major manufacturers of fishing line) is the company that actually recycles the line and actually makes the line into fish habitats So not only are we protecting our marine environment, we are also helping to increase fish populations by recycling fishing line...

to the left is a photo of a gray seal wrapped in fishing line, This seal was saved by the Marine Mammal Stranding Center and released after it's rescue it shows how important it is to properly dispose of our garbage!

Have a great day

Rob

Robert Rauf

The Kayak is DONE! 

Last winter I started building a Kayak.  I always like to challenge myself to see what I can do, I am a firm believer that you can do anything if you try, and you need some sort of hobby outside of work. Since I don't sail much in the winter; why not build a boat!

I cheated just a little, I ordered a kit.  It is called stitch and glue... I wish I took more photos of the beginning process, heck I didn't take any!  The kit comes in an 8 foot box, and it becomes a 17 foot boat... it was a LOT of pieces.  It is amazing how quickly it came together and formed the shape of the boat. You start off gluing the panels to length and then drill a million holes to stitch it together.  You stitch the kayak together with wire and then glue the seams; it looks like a porcupine when it is drying.  After the epoxy sets up you cut and remove the wires.

That's a shot of the inside of the hull with forms still in place, they got removed in the next step, you can see the deck upside down next to it with the seams taped.

Above the hull is turned over and the layer of glass and epoxy is done, there were a few filler coats of epoxy after this.

Above: Here it is with the deck being fitted, once the seam is fine tuned the deck gets glued on with more epoxy and then glassed to the hull, (Man my Garage was a mess!) PS: the yellow kayak hanging in the back of the garage is for sale!

Here is the boat, with the deck glassed to the hull, seams filled and taped, it is almost a boat, but there is so much more left to do.  The copious amount of clamps were to get the inside coaming attached to the cockpit, the coaming is a lamination of 4 pieces of wood laminated in fiberglass. You can NEVER have enough clamps!

Below it looks like a boat! The coaming is done, it looks pretty (from a few feet away) but there are hours of sanding left

From this point it was literally hours of sanding to even out the epoxy, it is not easy to get epoxy to lie flat on a surface that is not flat to start with! And it took at least 24 hours for each coat to dry. The next step was to actually start cutting it... this was a painful step, but I wanted to make it a touring kayak so I needed hatches and bulkheadsThere it is with the hatches cut, the lips for the hatches clamped into place which was another lamination of wood and fiberglass, if you look close you can see the rear bulkhead installed

You can also see it is not as pretty now, that was the hours of sanding!  But it is almost ready for varnish. I lost count but I think I put on 4 coats, parts of it have 5.

Below is the end pour... you cant really see what I was doing, but It looked so big up against the side of the house I had to snap a picture.  Each end was filled with epoxy so I could drill for a handle

Almost done! (below) the kayak has all the varnish the deck hardware, handles and it is just missing the hatches, the hatches were still drying. That's my 14 year old that claimed the boat already... someone tell him to mow the lawn! (and get a hair cut!)

The Maiden voyage:  IT FLOATS, and it paddled well, even through the chop of the Metedeconk River on a Sunday.

That's my son paddling back in off the river (above) and My wife below, I actually built it for her...

It was a fun project, and the pictures really do not show how pretty it is, all the grain of the wood matches on each pannel

I think I may have to start another one soon, this time for me!

Have a great week!

Rob

Robert Rauf

Perseid Meteor Shower: August 12, 2008

The Perseid Meteor Shower is just a few days away, it is one of Natures most reliable and consistent light shows. This year's Meteor shower is going to take place August 12th with the best viewing expected in the Wee hours of the morning after the moon sets.

As with most star gazing, light is NOT your friend, so you want to be in as dark a place as possible to view the meteors.  If you have never seen one, this is the time to see shooting stars! 

In NJ The beach will probably offer the best viewing... Not the beach by the boardwalks, Just too much light pollution there... you want to be off the beaten path.  A boat would be another good alternative. 

Not a bad romantic date with you significant other, A blanket, a bottle of wine and some star gazing!

According to NASA's web site, Serious Meteor seekers should begin watching the skies at about 9 pm on August 11th, Perseus first rises in the northeast, so that is the direction you should be looking... The source of the Meteor is the comet "Swift-Tuttle" which has already passed the obit of Uranus now.. it is the Trail of Debris that the Earth is passing through that gives us the light show.

So, Grab a blanket, Your significant other, and enjoy the show!

Rob

Robert Rauf

www.RobertRaufHomeloans.com

Brick Township SummerFest Finale August 28, 2008

Brick promises that the SummerFest Finale will have a special display.  As in the past when Mother Nature has not cooperated, the same has happened this year, and the "missed" date will equal a Huge display for this years finale.

I have been to the Finale show on more than one occasion where it was twice the usual show which makes for even more fun.  This year's show starts with the usual concert at Windward  Beach on Princeton Ave in Brick. The artists will be Nikki Britt and James Otto.

As usual my preference for viewing the fireworks would be by boat, on the Metedeconk River just off of windward beach.  You can also view the fireworks from Windward Beach, or just about anywhere along the shore of the Metedeconk River.

Lets hope for good weather so we can all enjoy the show!

Have a wonderful week

Rob

Robert Rauf

www.RobertRaufhomeloans.com

Jennifer Allan posted a blogand in the comments we discussed the above subject. She asked me to explain the difference between a Pre- Approval or a Pre-Qualification. I know there has been a lot of chat in the rain about deals falling apart in underwriting etc... I have posted a few blogs about  the very subject here, and here.

Honestly a good pre-qual is as good as any pre approval, and better than a bad preapproval for sure! Here is my quick explanation of the two.. Which I have turned into THREE:

• Pre-approval: Should be a fully underwritten file subject to a house... (using hypothetical house info) in 99.44% of the cases it makes NO sense to do this. It should only be done for the more difficult deal that is "iffy" from the start. (I made up the 99.44%, that's Ivory soap! but it is close to being true! We know which deals are difficult up front and which ones we can do blind folded)
• Pre-Qualification: Is basically talking to some one like me, possibly looking at pay stubs or tax returns. (I usually have people read numbers off of stubs, 1040's and W2's to be sure the numbers are accurate, you would be surprised how often the initial response is off, on both directions) And of course full credit report. A good LO will give as good a prequal as Pre-approval.

Some people get the two confused... or just don't ask the right questions for either of the above... Same as in any business, "Garbage in = Garbage out" There was NO learning curve in the past 5 or 6 years... "just take the deal" was the mentality... I started in the business when we HAD to know how to read tax returns, we Had to know FHA and VA. In this decade Loan officers did not need to know, or were too lazy to know the 'right' way to put a deal together. A lot has changed in the past year or so.  A lot of balls are being dropped due to a lack of knowledge in the industry today.

Deals should NEVER fall apart if buyers were screened properly... But Loan Officers have to keep up on their guidelines as much as Realtors have to keep up on Values. This has created  one other important piece in today's environment:

• RE-Qualification... Guidelines have been changing frequently in the past year, some one that could qualify last month may not qualify today. One of the blogs I posted (links above) discuss this very topic.

Deals Don't just fall apart for no reason. Either there is inexperience involved... the wrong questions were asked. A loan officer has to ask probing questions. You cant just ask, "what is your income" You will NEVER get the right answer!

And as Agents, you can not trust a 'dated' pre-approval or pre-qualification.  Especially if it is from someone you don't know. You need to double check these qualifications. Now, more than ever, you need to stick to your team to keep deals together. You need a trusted lending partner to keep your clients happy and the referrals flowing after the deal closes. We build each others reputation, and we need to work together as a team to keep OUR deals alive!

Have a wonderful week!

Rob

Robert Rauf

www.robertraufhomeloans.com

Jimmy and the Parrotsis a Jimmy Buffet Cover band that has been performing around the country for over 9 years

The Department of Recreation announced that Jimmy and the Parrots will perform August 20,2008 at John F. Johnson Memorial Park. The Show is scheduled for 7:30pm and the park opens at 6pm

Grants from the New Jersey State Council of the Arts have made it possible for this concert to be FREE of charge! There will be Vendors and Food Services on site for the evening.

Have a great weekend

Rob

Robert Rauf

www.RobertRaufHomeloans.com