Robert's Blog

The 6th Annual NJ State Rowing Championships will be held August 12, 2008 in Barnegat Bay. The 7 Mile race will start At Toms River Yacht Club.

The race is open to any kind of rowing craft. Life guards and competitve rowers use everything from:

• Traditional Sea Bright Skiffs
• Modern Surf Rescue Boats
• Sculling craft

Race registration starts at 4:30 PM. The entry fee is $30. For more information and registration forms you can visit rowrace.com or call (732) 785-0665

Just one of many events in our area that makes Ocean County a great place to live!

Have a great weekend

Rob

Robert Rauf

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com

The 6th Annual NJ State Rowing Championships will be held August 12 in Barnegat Bay. The 7 Mile race will start At Toms River Yacht Club.

The race is open to any kind of rowing craft. Life guards and competitve rowers use everything from:

• Traditional Sea Bright Skiffs
• Modern Surf Rescue Boats
• Sculling craft

Race registration starts at 4:30 PM. The entry fee is $30. For more information and registration forms you can visit rowrace.com or call (732) 785-0665

Just one of many events in our area that makes Ocean County a great place to live!

Have a great weekend

Rob

Robert Rauf

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com

Seaside Park August 2, 2008 Fluke Tournament

A Fluke fishing tournament will be held from 6am to 2pm on Saturday August 2nd at the Seaside Park Marina (corner of J street and Central Ave)

Immediately following the Tournament will be a barbecue and cash prizes and gifts for the winners.  Cost is $50/boat with 2 anglers and $25 for each additional angler.  kids 12 and under are free

For more information please call Adam Manzo at (609) 206-1708

Here are 2008's fishing guidelines:

Have a great week

Rob

Robert Rauf

www.robertraufhomeloans.com

Weekly Economic Report

This weeks calendar starts off slow and ends up with the "Biggie of the Week"

• Monday 28: No report
• Tuesday 29th: Consumer Confidence. Estimate is for 50.0, A reading below will support lower rates, a Reading above 50.4 may nudge rates higher. Investors usually are more interested in what the Consumer is doing, than how they say they are feeling... not an important number.
• Tuesday 29th: My Sons Birth Day! Should I get him a Wii?
• Wednesday 30th: No data to report
• Thursday 31st: 1 estimate of second Quarter GDP estimate is up 2%. Not likely to be a market mover but we may see rates creep up if the estimate is low. keep in mind that this is the first estimate, GDP is an over done number at times.
• Thursday: Initial Jobless claims for the previous week. Est. Down 11,000. If the number matches the estimate, no move in the market, if we see a sharp drop of 15,000 or more.... look OUT!
• Thursday: 2nd quarter Employment Cost Index. est +0.7%. Most likely a "ho-hum" number unless we see an increase over 1% which would indicate inflation pressure developing.
• Friday August 1: Our BIGGIE of the week, The Non Farm Payroll Report. Estimates: loss of 75,000 jobs, a 5.6% unemployment rate and an increase of +0.3% in average hourly earnings. Most likely will take a loss of 80k jobs and a 5.7% jobless rate for a significant move in rates
• Monday: Personal income, PCE and Factory orders... More on that next week.

As with last week, the movement in Oil and Stocks will dictate the movement in rates for the first few days of this week at least. Unfortunately the numbers show that Oil and Stocks will move higher this week... If the numbers don't lie this will be a big bump in the road for mortgage rates to get over.

As I mentioned above, Fridays employment data is the Big Number of the week.  Investors have priced in a pretty week employment picture.  If the data matches the prediction, not much will happen... but if the analysts screwed up and we see a stronger than anticipated report... Look OUT... there will be a heavy sell off leading to higher rates.

That is This weeks financial calendar. Last week my gut was telling me we would see some improvement and that did happen. This week I am not sure. On a positive note: The market opened "happy" this morning and we will probably see some improvement in rates today.

 I hope this helps you plan your week

Rob

Robert Rauf

WWW.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com

The Barnegat Bay National Estuary Program is conducting research on Blue Claw Crabs

Not only are these guys tasty, but you now have an opportunity to earn $5 and $20 rewards if you catch a crab with a pink or yellow metal tag and you report finds to the research program.

Crabbers can call (609) 896-7755 to report the tag number, Sex, Reproductive status, Date, Depth and Location, Ideally GPS coordinates are ideal for the study

as an alternitive you can visit the website for the NJbluecrabs to report your findings.

Crabbing in the Barnegat bay is one of my family's favorite past time, I cant get them to go fishing with me, but they enjoy crabbing! Now we have to see if we can catch one that is Tagged!

Have a great weekend, and CATCH SOME CRABS!

Rob

Robert Rauf

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com

Toms River Fest is coming soon!

Toms River Fest has a lot to offer the entire family with Midway attractions and games, BMX Demonstrations, Fireworks every night,  Exhibits, Food and MORE...

This is all on top of an exciting line up of stars.

Saturday August 2nd

• Carrie Underwood
• Lifehouse
• Gavin DeGraw
• Push Play
• The Lost Trailers
• Marie Digby
• And Hometown performances from: April Smith, Just Kait and Wiser Time

Sunday August 3rd

• Daughtry
• Avril Lavigne
• Live
• Collective Soul
• mr RAY
• Day Of Fire
• And Hometown performances from: Matt O'ree, Status Green, Jerzy Jung and Linda Chorney

Tickets available at the box office, ticketmaster or online at Toms River Fest's Website

All the information you will need is on the website, The event will be held at the Ritacco Center and Toms River High School North

Have a great Weekend!

Rob

Robert Rauf

www.RobertRaufHomeloans.com

FREE Concerts Mark Lavallete Heritage Committee's 21st year

The Lavallette Heritage Committee will have free concerts at 7pm on Sundays at the Gazebo on Bay Boulevard and Philadelphia Ave.

Performers include:

• A Little Bit of Heaven July 20th and August 10th
• The Happy Days String Band July 27
• John Luckenbill's Brass Band August 3
• Fred Lehotay's Rag Timers August 17
• Lakewood Jazz Ensemble August 24
• The Kootz August 31
• 21st annual Heritage Day Festival At 10am September 6th

For more Information call: (732) 793-0225

There is always something to do In Ocean County NJ, Especially during the Summer months

Have a great weekend

Rob

Robert Rauf

WWW.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com

Disney in Toms River

Since Monday Disney has had a crew of about 100 people setting up for this weekend at Toms River High School North for the inaugural stop of the Disney Music Block Party Tour.

Starting Friday and Ending Sunday there will be a many musical acts including

• Choo Choo Soul
• Dan Zanes and Friends
• Ralph's World
• They Might Be Giants.

Gates open at 2pm and close at 8pm.

Tickets are $36 with a portion going towards the School Districts Technology Foundation.  Tickets can be obtained at the gate, at the school District office at 1144 Hooper Ave Toms River, or by visiting the Disney Music Block Party Tour Web site.  You can call (201) 507-8900 for more information.

Free parking is available at both Toms River High School North and Intermediate North.

Next up for Toms River is "Toms River Fest" in the beginning of August with some Huge musical names coming to town.  Stay tuned for more information!

Have a great Weekend

Rob

Robert Rauf

www.RobertRaufHomeloans.com

(732)740-0175

 God left us great clues as to what foods help what part of our body!

God's Pharmacy! Amazing!

A sliced Carrot

• looks like the human eye. The pupil, iris and radiating lines look just like the human eye... and YES, science now shows carrots greatly enhance blood flow to and function of the eyes.

A Tomato

• has four chambers and is red. The heart has four chambers and is red. All o f the research shows tomatoes are loaded with lycopine and are indeed pure heart and blood food.

A Walnut

• looks like a little brain, a left and right hemisphere, upper cerebrums and lower cerebellums. Even the wrinkles or folds on the nut are just like the neo-cortex. We now know walnuts help develop more than three (3) dozen neuron-transmitters for brain function.

Grapes:

• hang in a cluster that has the shape of the heart. Each grape looks like a blood cell and all of the research today shows grapes are also profound heart and blood vitalizing food.

Kidney Beans

• actually heal and help maintain kidney function and yes, they look exactly like the human kidneys.

Celery, Bok Choy, Rhubarb and many more look just like bones.

• These foods specifically target bone strength. Bones are 23% sodium and these foods are 23% sodium. If you don't have enough sodium in your diet, the body pulls it from the bones, thus making them weak. These foods replenish the skeletal needs of the body.

Avocadoes, Eggplant and Pears

• target the health and function of the womb and cervix of the female - they look just like these organs. Today's research shows that when a woman eats one avocado a week, it balances hormones, sheds unwanted birth weight, and prevents cervical cancers. And how profound is this? It takes exactly nine (9) months to grow an avocado from blossom to ripened fruit. There are over 14,000 photolytic chemical constituents of nutrition in each one of these foods (modern science has only studied and named about 141 of them).

Figs

• are full of seeds and hang in twos when they grow. Figs increase the mobility of male sperm and increase the numbers of Sperm as well to overcome male sterility.

Sweet Potatoes

• look like the pancreas and actually balance the glycemic index of diabetics.

Olives

• assist the health and function of the ovaries

Oranges, Grapefruits

• and other Citrus fruits look just like the mammary glands of the female and actually assist the health of the breasts and the movement of lymph in and out of the breasts.

Onions

• look like the body's cells. Today's research shows onions help clear waste materials from all of the body cells. They even produce tears which wash the epithelial layers of the eyes. A working companion, Garlic, also helps eliminate waste materials and dangerous free radicals from the body.

Nature provides.... We just IGNORE!

Rob

Robert Rauf

www.RobertRaufHomeloans.com

 July 21, 2008

The Economic Calendar is a busy one this week, but there is not one piece of data that is expected to move the market. If you wrote a contract over the weekend you may be asking, should I float or should I lock? This information should help you make that decision:

• Today: we had LEI which was in line with expectations
• Tuesday 22nd Treasury Auction of 20 yr indexed securities
• Wednesday 23rd, Treasure Auctions 2 year notes
• Wed, The Fed release the Beige Book, it is a compilation of data from across the country expected to show sluggish growth, it is not very likely that there will be any surprises in this report
• Thursday 24th: Initial Jobless claims, the summer months are usually discounted by traders, if the number comes in UP 9,000 or more that will be good news for rates... less than 9k could be bad
• Thursday: Existing home sales Expected down 1.2%.... Described as a "yawner" it will only move rates if the month over month gain is significant.
• Thursday: yet another Treasury auction of 5 yr notes. The auctions are expected to be well received which will be supportive of steady Mortgage rates
• Friday 25th: June Durable goods, expected down .3%... the down is anticipated due to weakness in transportation orders, not likely to impact rates
• Friday: June New Home Sales, expected down 1.8% Same deal as Existing home sales... if significantly stronger than anticipated it may move rates, but probably will not be an issue.

Even with this Laundry list of data it will be the trading action in the Equities markets (stocks) and Oil prices (along with any comments from FED governors) that the market will be looking at.  We will need to see steady to lower stock an Oil prices, along with a lack of talk about inflation from the FED for us to see a significant move down in rates.  But ONE bad day in the Stock market can cause a flight to quality and artificially bring rates down. 

It may be a bumpy week, but a blind one at the same time. The safe gamble would be to lock, but my gut says we may improve slightly after the run up in rates last week. The market has a tendency to have knee jerk reactions UP and slow settling back down, So you also have to factor in the amount of time you have till you close in making the decision to lock in your loan.

Have a wonderful week!

Rob

Robert Rauf

WWW.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com

(732)740-0175