Robert's Blog

Last week's interest rate improvements were mostly driven by a flight to quality.  As money was flowing out of a weak stock market investors have to find a safe haven which typically means the Credit Markets... Which is where Bonds and Mortgages are traded. As the money flows in, the price goes up which brings the yield down. (in the credit market it is an inverse relationship between price and yield)

This week has been a pretty quiet one so far, we lost a little ground yesterday, but we are probably with in about 1/8% trading range for the whole week.

Thursday is the "biggie" of the week. With the Holiday we have the Non Farm Payroll report for the month of June coming in a day early.  It is anticipated that the economy lost 60,000 jobs, The unemployment rate to be 5.4% and that average Hourly Earnings are up 0.3%.  These are the numbers that are already "priced in" and any deviation in these numbers will move the market.  If by chance there are only 55,000 jobs lost and the UE rate is 5.3%, look for a rapid sell off in the market which will lead to higher interest rates.... Conversely if we see 65,000 jobs loss and a 5.5% UE rate we are likely to see a rally in the market, but I don't anticipate any rally to be "big" since it is a holiday shortened week and the market closes early Thursday (2pm close).

I have typically seen conservative trading just prior to the holiday weekend, Foreign markets are still open July 4th and Trading the day prior will likely be light... and my personal theory is that it is mostly the Jr traders left running the shop on July 3rd, and they don't want to get caught with their pants down and have their bosses yell at them on Monday... So a sharp sell off is more likely than a big rally.

But the market is always right, and I can only make educated guesses!  For now the market is volatile enough to warrant locking in your loan, it is the safe gamble in this environment

Have a great 4th of July Weekend!!! Support our Troops, with out them we would not have a 4th of July!

Rob

Robert Rauf

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com

Last week's interest rate improvements were mostly driven by a flight to quality.  As money was flowing out of a weak stock market investors have to find a safe haven which typically means the Credit Markets... Which is where Bonds and Mortgages are traded. As the money flows in, the price goes up which brings the yield down. (in the credit market it is an inverse relationship between price and yield)

This week has been a pretty quiet one so far, we lost a little ground yesterday, but we are probably with in about 1/8% trading range for the whole week.

Thursday is the "biggie" of the week. With the Holiday we have the Non Farm Payroll report for the month of June coming in a day early.  It is anticipated that the economy lost 60,000 jobs, The unemployment rate to be 5.4% and that average Hourly Earnings are up 0.3%.  These are the numbers that are already "priced in" and any deviation in these numbers will move the market.  If by chance there are only 55,000 jobs lost and the UE rate is 5.3%, look for a rapid sell off in the market which will lead to higher interest rates.... Conversely if we see 65,000 jobs loss and a 5.5% UE rate we are likely to see a rally in the market, but I don't anticipate any rally to be "big" since it is a holiday shortened week and the market closes early Thursday (2pm close).

I have typically seen conservative trading just prior to the holiday weekend, Foreign markets are still open July 4th and Trading the day prior will likely be light... and my personal theory is that it is mostly the Jr traders left running the shop on July 3rd, and they don't want to get caught with their pants down and have their bosses yell at them on Monday... So a sharp sell off is more likely than a big rally.

But the market is always right, and I can only make educated guesses! 

Have a great 4th of July Weekend!!! Support our Troops, with out them we would not have a 4th of July!

Rob

Robert Rauf

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com

OK, everyone always asks for more photos, I was just reading a newsletter and found another picture of sailing that I stole out of the news letter! 

this is an "A CAT" it is unique to the Barnegat Bay. 

they were very popular in the 1920's and a few of the originals were sailing up until recent years.  Now there has been a lot of growth in the fleet and I think there are about 15 of them racing on the bay.. Still traditionally made, all wood Lots of Varnish... 28' pieces of furniture that we go out and sail and beat up! The boats name is RAVEN... (thats me, third person from the left)

This is just an occasional boat that I sail on, if you look at my previous posts on sailing you will see the pictures of the J24 that I sail most.  Keep you fingers crossed for me, I am going sailing (racing) tonight for the first time in close to 2 months, I am tired of nursing an injury and miss it too much... If it hurts too much tomorrow I will only have myself to blame... Against Dr's orders!

Have a great week

Rob

Robert Rauf

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com

My previous posts did not include all the towns in the area, so here is a condensed list of Fourth Of July celebrations in Ocean County:

Thursday July 3rd:

• Jackson township: John F. Johnson Jr Memorial park; Cooks Bridge Road and Kierych Drive Fireworks at Dusk, Rain Date July 5 (732) 928-1200 x255
• Lacey Township: Lacey High School on Hians Street, Fireworks at Dusk Rain date July 5 (609)693-1100x2203
• Lakewood: Fireworks over Lake Carasaljo, route 9 and North Lake Drive (732)905-3405
• Point Pleasant Beach: Fireworks at dark, Jenkinsons Boardwalk www.pointpleasantbeach.com

Friday July 4th:

• Barnegat: Fireworks at dusk Barnegat Municipal Dock
• Beach Haven: Fireworks, Taylor Avenue Bay front, rain date July 5, (609) 492-2800
• Beachwood: Fireworks approx 8:45pm Launched from Beachwood's Waterfront over the Toms River
• Brick Township: Fireworks & concert at Windward Beach  on Princeton Ave (Metedeconk River)
• Lakehurst:  Fireworks at dusk at Horicon Lake Saturday Rain date. (732) 657-4141
• Pinebeach: claims fireworks at dusk, but I think they are actually piggy backing off of Beachwood's.
• Point Pleasant Beach: Wow, 2 nights in a row!
• Seaside Heights: Fireworks 9:30pm on the beach between the 2 amusement piers. Sunday rain date (800)732-7467 www.seasideheightstourism.com
• Tuckerton: Fireworks at dusk Tuckerton Seaport on west Main street (Route 9)
• Lavallette: fireworks and concert 8pm, Bay Blvd & Philadelphia Ave. Rain date 7/13 www.lavalletteboro.com
• Plumstead: Fireworks at New Eqypt High School, 117 Evergreen Road. Sunday Rain date, may be a $1 admission. (609)758-3005

There is quite a list of Patriotic activities!  most of the above have concerts as well, but it is all about the big bangs, OOOOOo's and AHHHHHHH's of a fireworks show!

Have a Happy and safe Fourth of July!

Rob

Robert Rauf

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com

 Why is it called a short sale?  Because, the bank takes it in the shorts!

But seriously:

I have seen numerous posts asking for short sale help. Here is a quick to-do list to help make the process easier, this is a list for the LISTING Agent, as a selling agent you can ask the listing agent if they have done this prior to making an offer:

listing agent should always ask, and double check, how many mortgages? 1, 2, 3? balances, and are they current on all payments.

• If there is a risk of being short based on the above answers, get a letter from the seller to authorize you to contact the bank on their behalf
• Contact the LOSS MITIGATION OFFICER at the lender and request the short sale package. Do NOT Try to negotiate yet.  There is nothing to negotiate with out a contract.
• The package will have: the documents list required from the seller, disclosures, forms etc.
• Get the seller to fill out the paperwork and put together the necessary documentation (typically full income and asset disclosure)

If the ducks above are lined up and you present an entire package to a bank with the offer, guess what?  much smoother sailing..Still not easy, but far from painful... A bank will probably put the 'good' one on top of the pile

• once you present the offer, it is YOUR job to negotiate, be the squeaky wheel. Do not let the attorney do it.  Get the Loss Mitigation Officers Email and follow up regularly.

Prepare the seller and the buyer for an extended closing. Managing expectations in any transaction is a big plus for everyone.

If there is more than one mortgage it will take longer, since the Second lien holder will walk away with the least amount of money, If there is PMI, the Mortgage insurance company will have to get involved to approve it. One of the biggest issues is a seller that wont work with you and fill out the paper work.

If the Seller has cash... The bank will not negotiate a short sale, why would they??? if the seller has $50,000 in a cd, why should the bank accept a short pay off ?  All of these issues will effect the speed of the transaction and are potential bumps in the road

I equate the process to a mortgage application.  Even a difficult deal will go through rather smoothly if I fill in the blanks and supply the necessary paperwork up front. That is why people refer me, and How I feed my kids. The nightmare scenarios we all hear about come from inexperienced agents and LO's that don't do it right up front.

I hope this helps

Rob