Weekly Economic Report
This weeks calendar starts off slow and ends up with the "Biggie of the Week"
- Monday 28: No report
- Tuesday 29th: Consumer Confidence. Estimate is for 50.0, A reading below will support lower rates, a Reading above 50.4 may nudge rates higher. Investors usually are more interested in what the Consumer is doing, than how they say they are feeling... not an important number.
- Tuesday 29th: My Sons Birth Day! Should I get him a Wii?
- Wednesday 30th: No data to report
- Thursday 31st: 1 estimate of second Quarter GDP estimate is up 2%. Not likely to be a market mover but we may see rates creep up if the estimate is low. keep in mind that this is the first estimate, GDP is an over done number at times.
- Thursday: Initial Jobless claims for the previous week. Est. Down 11,000. If the number matches the estimate, no move in the market, if we see a sharp drop of 15,000 or more.... look OUT!
- Thursday: 2nd quarter Employment Cost Index. est +0.7%. Most likely a "ho-hum" number unless we see an increase over 1% which would indicate inflation pressure developing.
- Friday August 1: Our BIGGIE of the week, The Non Farm Payroll Report. Estimates: loss of 75,000 jobs, a 5.6% unemployment rate and an increase of +0.3% in average hourly earnings. Most likely will take a loss of 80k jobs and a 5.7% jobless rate for a significant move in rates
- Monday: Personal income, PCE and Factory orders... More on that next week.
As with last week, the movement in Oil and Stocks will dictate the movement in rates for the first few days of this week at least. Unfortunately the numbers show that Oil and Stocks will move higher this week... If the numbers don't lie this will be a big bump in the road for mortgage rates to get over.
As I mentioned above, Fridays employment data is the Big Number of the week. Investors have priced in a pretty week employment picture. If the data matches the prediction, not much will happen... but if the analysts screwed up and we see a stronger than anticipated report... Look OUT... there will be a heavy sell off leading to higher rates.
That is This weeks financial calendar. Last week my gut was telling me we would see some improvement and that did happen. This week I am not sure. On a positive note: The market opened "happy" this morning and we will probably see some improvement in rates today.
I hope this helps you plan your week
Rob
Robert Rauf
I'd like to see the interest rates stay steady. We need some stability in this market. But, most importantly. GET THAT KID A Wii!!!! Coleen
to wii or not to wii, that is the question!
Coleen, we cant dwell on rates too much, it is nice to have some information for when you talk to your clients and they ask. But remember, people did not have any problems selling homes with double digit rates... so today's rates in the 6's are very affordable!
Tuesday, 29th...can we all come over and bowl (my favorite wii game) and yes, I'm as bad on Wii as I am on the real lanes! I'll even bring my own shoes, oh that's right I don't need them! Thanks for making this stuff easy to read.
PS Have you bought your ticket to the Ocean County WCR Art Show on August 22nd?
WCR art show? first I have heard of it... I have been out of the WCR loop in the past few months.
Rob, Congratulations on your son's birthday today - hope you guys have a great day!
Thank you Lisa!